Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel, India’s two top telcos, are expected to deliver strong revenue and income growth in the upcoming 2-3 years, riding on user gains through their sustained mobile broadband services. The potential reasons behind the prediction also include an upcoming tariff hike, potentially by this December, and a scale-up of their respective home broadband businesses, analysts claim, as per the reports by ET. 

On the one hand, Reliance Jio is expected to exhibit 17-21 percent growth in revenue or operating income, as per Motilal Oswal, while Bharti Airtel is set to showcase 15-21 percent revenue or EBITDA growth, as per the estimates of Goldman Sachs. Where Jio’s growth will be powered by the flow-through of another tariff hike by the year-end and an acceleration in its fixed wireless access (FWA) offerings, Bharti Airtel's growth will be facilitated at VI's expense and a tariff hike in the second half of calendar 2025.

Upcoming Tariff Hike 

Bharti Airtel MD Gopal Vittal noted last week that mobile tariffs in India remain among the lowest globally, emphasizing the need for further tariff correction to strengthen the sector's financial health and enable higher returns for telecom companies. This is amid the latest tariff hike by Indian telcos in July 2024. 

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VI’s Situation 

Goldman Sachs expects Airtel to continue gaining market share, particularly if Vodafone Idea (Vi) is unable to make meaningful capital investments over the next two to three years. Vi’s ambitious ₹50,000–55,000 crore capex plan hinges on securing a long-pending ₹25,000 crore credit line from banks—a crucial step that has been stalled for months. 

In the same line, the rating agency also suggests that the aforesaid funding is critical for Vi’s survival and for enhancing its competitiveness against Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel.

Jio’s Stride 

Analysts highlight robust growth trajectories for both Jio and Bharti Airtel. Jio has turned free cash flow (FCF) positive in FY25, supported by strong operating cash flows and declining capex. The telecom market leader’s return on capital employed (RoCE) is also expected to rise steadily, driven by increasing monetization of 5G spectrum acquired in the 2022 and 2024 auctions, alongside a surge in 5G user adoption.

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Airtel’s Gain 

Bharti Airtel, meanwhile, is projected to see its India RoCE exceed 20 percent by FY27, according to Goldman Sachs, with its EBIT expected to double from FY25 levels, underscoring the company’s improving capital efficiency and profitability.