The FIFA World Cup 2026 has reached its final stages, with only one semi-final left before the tournament concludes with the final. Spain have already secured their place after defeating France 2-0, ending hopes of a repeat of the iconic 2022 World Cup final between Argentina and France. That result also eliminated one of the pre-tournament favourites, leaving England and defending champions Argentina to battle for second place in the final.
While fans and pundits continue to debate who will join Spain, artificial intelligence models have also weighed in. Interestingly, four of the most widely used AI models, ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and Grok, have independently reached the same conclusion. However, Opta’s AI-powered Supercomputer tells a different story.
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Rather than simply asking which team will win, the more interesting question is how these AI systems arrive at their predictions and why they disagree.
What ChatGPT Predicts
OpenAI’s ChatGPT gives Argentina the edge based on three primary factors: current tournament performance, historical success at the FIFA World Cup, and overall squad strength and tactical flexibility. Argentina’s consistency throughout the tournament, combined with their experience in handling high-pressure knockout matches, makes them slight favourites.
The model expects England to make the contest highly competitive but predicts Argentina will eventually progress after extra time or a penalty shootout.
What Gemini Predicts
Google’s Gemini reaches a remarkably similar conclusion. According to Gemini, England is capable of striking first, particularly through quick transitions and counter-attacks. However, over the course of 120 minutes, Argentina’s experience, game management and ability to adjust tactically are expected to make the difference. Gemini ultimately predicts Argentina to advance.
What Claude Predicts
Anthropic’s Claude also favours Argentina. Claude considers the semi-final too close to call in normal time but believes Argentina’s composure and experience in knockout football would see them edge England, most likely through extra time or penalties.
What Grok Predicts
Elon Musk’s xAI chatbot, Grok, also places Argentina ahead after evaluating tournament performances, historical achievements and squad quality.
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Unlike the other AI models, Grok offers a projected scoreline, predicting Argentina to win 2-1, potentially after extra time. While the margin is narrow, the outcome remains consistent with the other large language models.
What Opta’s Supercomputer Predicts
The only major predictive model breaking away from this consensus is the Opta Supercomputer. Developed by Stats Perform, the Opta Supercomputer is an AI-powered sports analytics system that forecasts football matches using advanced statistical modelling. Instead of generating responses like conversational AI chatbots, it focuses purely on probability. Before each match, the model runs around 25,000 simulations, evaluating millions of possible outcomes based on extensive football data.
Its calculations combine Opta Power Rankings, recent and historical team performances, expected goals (xG), player quality, betting market probabilities, injuries, suspensions, head-to-head records and numerous other performance metrics. After every completed match, the probabilities are updated to reflect the latest tournament conditions.
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Following Spain’s victory over France in the first semi-final, the Opta Supercomputer updated its projections for the remaining fixtures. Ahead of England’s clash with Argentina at Atlanta Stadium, it gives England a 52.53% probability of reaching the final.
Its tournament-winning probabilities are even closer. Opta estimates England have around a 19% chance of lifting the World Cup, compared with 18.1% for Argentina, suggesting England are marginal favourites to progress and face Spain in the final. Notably, Opta’s model had successfully projected the tournament’s final four teams, England, Argentina, Spain and France, as the leading title contenders before the semi-finals began.
Why the Models Disagree
The difference lies less in artificial intelligence itself and more in the way each system approaches prediction.
Large language models such as ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and Grok are reasoning systems. When asked to predict a football match, they analyse factors such as tournament momentum, tactical styles, historical performances, squad depth and contextual football knowledge before producing a qualitative judgement. Their predictions resemble the reasoning process of an experienced football analyst.
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The Opta Supercomputer works differently. It is a predictive analytics engine built around statistical probability rather than narrative reasoning. Instead of deciding which team appears stronger overall, it calculates how often each team would win if the same match were played thousands of times under similar conditions. Even a small statistical advantage can shift the probabilities in one team’s favour. In other words, the AI chatbots answer the question, “Who is more likely to find a way to win?” Opta answers, “Who wins most often across thousands of simulations?”
Can AI Really Predict Football?
Football remains one of the most unpredictable sports, and no AI system can guarantee an outcome. A red card, an injury, a tactical adjustment or a moment of individual brilliance can completely change a match within minutes.
What AI can do is estimate probabilities by analysing vast amounts of historical and real-time data far beyond what any individual analyst could process manually. These systems are valuable because they identify patterns, quantify strengths and weaknesses, and help explain why one team may hold a statistical advantage.
Indrani Priyadarshini is a journalist and editorial professional specialising in technology, artificial intelligence, smart cities, green energy, and digital transformation. With over four years of experience in tech journalism and digital media, she is known for turning complex industry developments into clear, engaging, and insightful stories. Her expertise spans reporting, editorial strategy, digital publishing workflows, and in-depth coverage of emerging technologies shaping the future. She has also conducted high-profile interviews and podcasts with industry leaders, bringing sharp analysis and accessible storytelling to a wide audience.
